CRRC(601766) 西南证券·2025-03-31 11:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China CNR Corporation (601766) with a target price of 8.46 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 7.06 CNY [1][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 246.46 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.39 billion CNY, up 5.8% year-on-year. The significant growth in the high-speed train business, with a revenue increase of 49.3%, was a key driver of this performance [7][12]. - The railway equipment segment led the growth, achieving a revenue of 110.46 billion CNY, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, with an improved gross margin of 24.7% [7][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the replacement policy for equipment and the increased volume of high-speed train maintenance, which is projected to drive stable growth in performance [7][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company anticipates revenues of 266.83 billion CNY in 2025, 284.59 billion CNY in 2026, and 297.63 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 8.27%, 6.65%, and 4.58% respectively [2][8]. - Net Profit Forecast: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.60 billion CNY, 14.62 billion CNY, and 15.66 billion CNY, with compound annual growth of 8% [2][12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected EPS for the next three years is 0.47 CNY in 2025, 0.51 CNY in 2026, and 0.55 CNY in 2027 [2][12]. - Valuation Metrics: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 15 in 2025 to 13 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][12]. Business Segment Analysis - Railway Equipment: This segment is projected to grow at rates of 15%, 10%, and 5% from 2025 to 2027, with a gross margin improvement expected due to the higher proportion of high-speed train maintenance [8][12]. - Urban Rail and Infrastructure: Expected to see slight declines in revenue growth, with projections of -1.0% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027 [9][12]. - New Industries: This segment is anticipated to grow at a steady rate of 5% annually from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from the company's technological advantages [9][12].