HYMD(600971) Guotai Junan Securities·2025-03-31 11:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 10.24 CNY, down from the previous target of 11.71 CNY [1][12]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 6.972 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 10.45% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.072 billion CNY, down 47.35% year-on-year. The Q4 net profit was 127 million CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 68.41% year-on-year and 31.73% quarter-on-quarter, which aligns with expectations [12]. - The company plans to increase its production and sales volume in 2025, which is expected to enhance its performance. The original coal production is projected to reach 10.01 million tons, a 4% increase from 2024, while the sales of commercial coal are expected to rise by 10% to 8.3075 million tons [12]. - The average selling price for 2024 is estimated at 889 CNY per ton, a decrease of 103 CNY per ton year-on-year, while the sales cost is expected to rise to 558 CNY per ton, an increase of 29 CNY per ton year-on-year [12]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 7.786 billion CNY and a net profit of 2.036 billion CNY. The projections for 2024A show a revenue of 6.972 billion CNY and a net profit of 1.072 billion CNY, indicating a significant decline in profitability [4][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.89 CNY, down from 1.70 CNY in 2023, with further declines expected in 2025 and 2026 [4][14]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to drop from 16.2% in 2023 to 8.7% in 2024, reflecting the impact of reduced profitability [4][14]. Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 8.26 CNY and 14.28 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 8.63 CNY [5]. - The total market capitalization is reported at 10.356 billion CNY, with a total share count of 1.2 billion shares [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the coking coal prices have reached a bottom and may have higher upward risks in the future. The company’s long-term contracts for coking coal have seen a price drop, which is expected to impact Q1 2025 performance significantly [12]. - The company is also expanding its power generation business, including a 1000MW thermal power project and a 300MW wind power project, along with distributed photovoltaic projects [12].