Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shougang Resources, with a target price of HKD 3.19, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the local market index by over 15% [7][8]. Core Views - The significant increase in the sales proportion of high-sulfur coking coal has impacted sales prices, but the pressure is expected to ease in the first half of 2025. The company is projected to maintain a 100% dividend payout ratio for 2024, supported by strong cash flow [2][8]. - The company experienced a decline in total revenue for 2024, amounting to HKD 5.057 billion, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 21% to HKD 1.494 billion. This decline is attributed to changes in sales structure, falling coking coal prices, and currency exchange rate impacts [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Trends: - Revenue for 2021 was HKD 7,075.82 million, increasing to HKD 8,214.72 million in 2022, before dropping to HKD 5,891.07 million in 2023 and further to HKD 5,057 million in 2024, reflecting a 14.2% decrease [6]. - Net profit followed a similar trend, with HKD 2,538.50 million in 2021, HKD 2,715.37 million in 2022, HKD 1,889.25 million in 2023, and HKD 1,494.07 million in 2024, marking a 20.9% decline [6]. - Production and Sales: - The company anticipates a raw coking coal production of approximately 4.96 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 6%, while the production of premium coking coal is expected to be around 3.16 million tons, down 3% [8]. - The average selling price of premium coking coal is projected to be HKD 1,666 per ton in 2024, a decline of 14% year-on-year [8]. - Dividend and Cash Flow: - The company expects to distribute profits amounting to HKD 1.512 billion in cash for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 100%, an increase from 73% in 2023 [8].
首钢资源（00639）：2024年年报点评：销售结构变化影响均售价，现金流保障持续高分红率