HUALAN BIOLOGICAL(SZ:002007) Guotai Junan Securities·2025-03-31 11:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company's blood products business is stable, while the influenza vaccine faces pressure due to combined volume and price effects. It is expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2025 on a new base [4] - The report adjusts the 2025-2026 EPS forecast to 0.70 and 0.85 yuan respectively, with a new 2027 EPS forecast of 1.03 yuan. The target price remains at 19.50 yuan, based on a comparable company PE of 28X for 2025 [13] - The company achieved a revenue of 43.79 billion yuan in 2024, down 18.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 10.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.6% [13] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue 53.42 billion yuan, Net Profit 14.82 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue 43.79 billion yuan, Net Profit 10.88 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue 50.60 billion yuan, Net Profit 12.81 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue 58.07 billion yuan, Net Profit 15.52 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue 65.95 billion yuan, Net Profit 18.87 billion yuan [6][15] Market Data - The company's current price is 16.03 yuan, with a target price of 19.50 yuan, indicating potential upside [3][7] - The total market capitalization is 29.315 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.829 billion shares [7] Business Performance - The blood products business is expected to achieve a revenue of 32.46 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 10.9%, with stable gross margins [13] - The company has seen a continuous increase in plasma collection, with a total of 1,586 tons collected in 2024, an increase of 18% [13] - The influenza vaccine sales are projected to decline by 53.5% in 2024, with a total of 14.24 million bottles sold [13]