Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve profitability in the current year, with an improvement in its sales industry ranking [5] - The report highlights a focus on sales quality and a reduction in debt pressure within the year [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 72,564.06 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline further to 59,052.95 million, a drop of 18.6% [6] - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 1,064.81 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of 6,896.64 million in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 115.4% [6] - The company anticipates an EPS of 0.05 in 2024, increasing to 0.12 in 2025 [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 12.5% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2024 [6] Market Position and Sales - The company’s signed sales amount for 2024 is projected at 982.55 billion, reflecting a decrease of 30.4% year-on-year, ranking it 12th in the industry [7] - The company holds 397 projects in urban operations, property development, commercial leasing, and hotel operations, with an unsold area of approximately 77.96 million square meters [7] Cash Flow and Debt Management - As of the end of 2024, the company has cash and cash equivalents of 30.805 billion, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year. Interest-bearing debt is projected at 122.801 billion, down 3.6% [7] - The net debt to adjusted capital ratio is expected to decrease to 67% by the end of 2024, a reduction of 6 percentage points from 2023 [7] Valuation - The report estimates a 2025 EPS of approximately 0.12, suggesting a valuation range of 1.24 to 1.48 per share, translating to 1.34 to 1.61 Hong Kong dollars per share [7]
中国金茂（00817）：全年实现扭亏为盈，销售行业排名提升