广州酒家（603043）2024年报业绩点评：毛利率同比承压，股权激励提振信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 18.62 CNY, down from the previous forecast of 19.20 CNY [1][5][12]. Core Views - The company has launched an equity incentive plan to boost market confidence, and consumer demand is expected to gradually recover [2]. - The company's 2024 revenue is projected to be 5.124 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.55%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 494 million CNY, a decrease of 10.29% year-on-year [12]. - The equity incentive plan aims to grant a total of up to 10.35 million shares, accounting for approximately 1.82% of the total share capital, to 227 individuals, which represents about 3.9% of the company's total employees in 2023 [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue: - 2023A: 4,901 million CNY - 2024A: 5,124 million CNY (+4.6%) - 2025E: 5,724 million CNY (+11.7%) - 2026E: 6,334 million CNY (+10.7%) - 2027E: 6,993 million CNY (+10.4%) [4][13] - Net Profit (Attributable to Parent): - 2023A: 550 million CNY - 2024A: 494 million CNY (-10.3%) - 2025E: 555 million CNY (+12.3%) - 2026E: 615 million CNY (+10.9%) - 2027E: 680 million CNY (+10.5%) [4][13] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.97 CNY - 2024A: 0.87 CNY - 2025E: 0.98 CNY - 2026E: 1.08 CNY - 2027E: 1.20 CNY [4][13] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 15.1% - 2024A: 12.7% - 2025E: 13.4% - 2026E: 14.0% - 2027E: 14.4% [4][13] Business Performance - The company's revenue from food manufacturing in 2024 is expected to be 3.570 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 1.03%. The revenue from the catering business is projected to be 1.455 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.24% [12]. - The gross profit margin for food manufacturing in 2024 is expected to be 37.81%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company plans to achieve revenue growth rates of no less than 16%/28%/40.85% for the years 2025-2027 based on the 2023 revenue [12].