Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) EBSCN·2025-03-31 12:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [3][5] Core Views - In 2024, Qingdao Beer is expected to achieve operating revenue of 32.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 4.34 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing a decline in sales volume but an increase in product pricing, indicating a continuous upgrade in product structure [1] - The new management team, led by Chairman Jiang Zongxiang, is anticipated to drive the company towards better performance in 2025, supported by a low base and recovery in the catering channel [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's gross margin is expected to be 40.23%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to reach 13.98%, up by 1.16 percentage points year-on-year [2] Sales Performance - In 2024, the company's beer sales volume decreased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the average price per ton increased by 0.6% [1] - Online product sales grew by 21% year-on-year, marking 12 consecutive years of growth [1] Management Changes - The resignation of former Chairman Huang Kexing and the appointment of Jiang Zongxiang as the new Chairman is expected to mark a new chapter in the company's development [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is 4.846 billion yuan and 5.171 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55 yuan and 3.79 yuan [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22x for 2025, 20x for 2026, and 19x for 2027 [3]