PSBC(SH:601658) Changjiang Securities·2025-03-31 13:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The bank's 2024 total revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 0.2%. Interest income grew by 1.5%, while non-interest income saw a 3.2% increase. Investment income helped mitigate the decline in middle-income revenue [2][6]. - The bank's loan growth was 9.4% for the year, with retail products showing positive growth despite weak demand. Deposits increased by 9.5% [2][6]. - The net interest margin for the year was 1.87%, down 14 basis points year-on-year, while the deposit cost rate decreased by 9 basis points to 1.44%, expected to remain the lowest in the industry [2][6]. - The year-end non-performing loan ratio rose by 4 basis points to 0.90%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 16 percentage points to 286% [2][6]. - The bank announced an active adjustment plan for savings agency fees, which is expected to effectively release future profits, estimating a reduction of 4.7% in pre-tax profit for 2025 due to a decrease in agency fee expenses by 4.5 billion yuan [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's total revenue was 348.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.5 billion yuan. Interest income was 286.1 billion yuan, and non-interest income was 25.3 billion yuan [27]. - The bank's total loans grew to 8.7 trillion yuan, with retail loans showing a growth rate of 9.4% [27]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at year-end was 0.90%, with a new generation rate of 0.84% for the year. The provision coverage ratio was 286% [2][6]. - The bank's asset quality indicators remained strong despite some fluctuations in retail risk pressures [2][6]. Fee Adjustment Impact - The active adjustment of savings agency fees is projected to save 11.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 4.5 billion yuan in 2025, enhancing pre-tax profit by 4.7% [21][22]. - The comprehensive savings agency fee rate is expected to decrease from 1.15% to 1.04% following the adjustments [21][22]. Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% for 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 5.7% for H-shares [2][6]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is estimated at 0.58x for A-shares and 0.51x for H-shares, indicating a low valuation with high dividend yield advantages [2][6].