ACCELINK(SZ:002281) Changjiang Securities·2025-03-31 13:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's stock incentive plan is beneficial for motivating core personnel, driving future growth momentum. The domestic cloud service providers are experiencing strong capital expenditure (Capex) growth, with Alibaba and Tencent's Capex in Q4 2024 showing triple-digit percentage increases, leading to an explosion in demand for data communication optical modules. The company has a strong competitive position in the domestic data communication market, with sufficient layout in optical chips and silicon photonics [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On March 25, the company announced a new restricted stock incentive plan, proposing to grant up to 15.07 million shares (1.9% of total share capital) at a price of 28.27 yuan per share. This incentive covers 985 core personnel, including directors, executives, middle management, and technical backbones [4]. Event Commentary - The incentive plan includes performance assessment targets for the release of restricted stock, with compound annual growth rates for net profit set at no less than 6%/7%/8% for 2025/2026/2027, respectively, based on 2023 performance. The targets also require net asset return rates to be no less than 8.9% and new product sales to account for at least 23% of main business revenue [9]. - Domestic cloud service providers are seeing a significant increase in Capex, with Alibaba's Q4 2024 Capex reaching 31.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 319%, and Tencent's reaching 36.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 386%. This surge is expected to drive demand for data communication optical modules [9]. - The company holds a strong competitive position in the domestic data communication market, with a global market share of 5.8% in optical devices, ranking fourth globally. The demand for data communication products is expected to surge due to AI-driven growth [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 786 million yuan, 1.028 billion yuan, and 1.363 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 31%, and 33%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 46x, 35x, and 26x, respectively, justifying the "Buy" rating [9].