M&G(603899) 国信证券·2025-03-31 14:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue in Q4 2024, with a total revenue of 242.3 billion (+3.8%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.0 billion (-8.6%). The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per share, resulting in a cash dividend payout ratio of 65.6% (+17.2 percentage points) [1][4]. - The traditional core business remains stable, with online and overseas revenues showing significant growth. Online revenue reached 11.4 billion (+33%) and overseas revenue reached 10.4 billion (+21%) in 2024 [2]. - The retail segment, particularly the Morning Glory Life Hall, achieved revenue of 14.8 billion (+10.8%), driven by enhanced retail capabilities and IP product expansion [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 242.3 billion, with a net profit of 14.0 billion. Q4 revenue was 71.1 billion (-5.0%) and net profit was 3.7 billion (-13.5%) [1]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 18.9% (+0.04 percentage points), while the net margin was 5.8% (-0.8 percentage points) [3]. Business Segments - The traditional core business generated revenue of 93.3 billion (+2.1%), with product quality improvements and channel expansions contributing to growth. The writing tools segment saw a revenue increase of 6.9% [2]. - The office direct sales business, represented by Keli Pu, achieved revenue of 138.3 billion (+3.9%) in 2024, despite a decline in Q4 [2]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 15.7 billion, 17.7 billion, and 19.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.6%, 12.3%, and 10.7% respectively [4][5]. - The diluted EPS for the next three years is projected to be 1.7, 1.9, and 2.1 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 16.1, and 14.5 [4][5].