Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Feihe (06186) [2][17] Core Views - The infant formula business is expected to return to growth in 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025 [1][7] - Despite challenges in the infant formula industry due to declining birth rates, China Feihe's strong brand recognition and distribution network position it well for market share expansion [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for China Feihe are as follows: - 2023: 19,532 million - 2024: 20,749 million (6% YoY growth) - 2025E: 21,751 million (5% YoY growth) - 2026E: 22,713 million (4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 23,630 million (4% YoY growth) [3][8] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 3,390 million - 2024: 3,570 million (5% YoY growth) - 2025E: 3,862 million (8% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4,024 million (4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 4,191 million (4% YoY growth) [3][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2023: 0.37 - 2024: 0.39 - 2025E: 0.43 - 2026E: 0.44 - 2027E: 0.46 [3][8] Market Data - As of March 31, 2025, the closing price is HKD 5.87, with a market capitalization of HKD 532.25 billion [4][7] - The 52-week high and low prices are HKD 7.38 and HKD 3.39, respectively [4] Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20,749 million, a 6.23% increase YoY, and a net profit of 3,570 million, a 5.31% increase YoY [7] - The company’s infant formula segment generated revenue of 19,062 million, with a 6.63% increase YoY, maintaining a market share of 20.5% [7][8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 66.34%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points YoY, driven by an improved product mix [7]
中国飞鹤（06186）：24年婴配粉业务重回增长25年有望增势