Tsingtao Brewery(600600) 太平洋证券·2025-03-31 14:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of 81.19, compared to the last closing price of 76.53 [1][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer is expected to face sales pressure in 2024, with a focus on waiting for demand recovery [1][5]. - The company's 2024 revenue is reported at 32.138 billion, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.345 billion, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [5][8]. - The report highlights that the beer sales volume in 2024 is under pressure, with a total production of 35.213 million tons in China, down 0.6% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a sales volume of 7.538 million tons, down 5.9% year-on-year, with an average price of 4189.3 yuan per ton, up 0.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The main brand sales volume was 4.34 million tons, down 4.8%, while other brands saw a decline of 7.2% [5][6]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased to 2548 yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin of 40.23%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [6][8]. - The net profit margin reached 13.5%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 2% for 2027, with net profit growth of 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.53, 3.84, and 4.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 20x, and 19x [6][8].