Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 开源证券·2025-03-31 14:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's primary aluminum production is expected to increase further, highlighting its unique green value proposition [1][4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 54.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [4][5] - The report anticipates a significant drop in alumina prices in 2025, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 6.89 billion, 8.35 billion, and 9.78 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +56.2%, +21.1%, and +17.1% [4][5] - The company's green aluminum production, which utilizes approximately 80% green electricity, results in carbon emissions that are only 20% of those from coal-powered aluminum production, emphasizing its competitive edge in the carbon market [6] Financial Summary - In 2024 Q4, the average price of alumina was approximately 5,318.0 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 77.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.0% [5] - The company's self-sufficiency rate for alumina in 2024 was about 25%, with expectations for increased aluminum production in 2025 due to abundant power supply in Yunnan [5] - The financial projections indicate a revenue of 55.66 billion yuan for 2025, with a gross margin of 19.7% and a net margin of 12.4% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.99 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.9 times based on the closing price on March 28, 2025 [4][7]