YANKUANG ENERGY(600188) 开源证券·2025-03-31 14:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes cost control measures to mitigate the impact of declining coal prices and highlights the growth potential in the coal business [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.43 billion yuan, down 28.4% year-on-year [3][5] - The report projects a recovery in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of 12.08 billion yuan, 13.99 billion yuan, and 16.95 billion yuan respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of -19.7%, +15.7%, and +21.2% [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production volume of 142.49 million tons, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 136.31 million tons, up 7.3% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 672 yuan per ton, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 396 yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin for coal was 277 yuan per ton, reflecting a decline of 27.7% year-on-year [3] Business Segments - The coal chemical business reported a revenue of 25.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 21.6%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The power generation segment saw a revenue of 2.54 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 13.1%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] Growth Potential - The company is expanding its coal production capacity with new projects, including the Shandong Wanfeng coal mine and the Xinjiang Wucaiwan open-pit mine, which are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [4] - The company plans to produce 155-160 million tons of coal in 2025, continuing the trend of year-on-year growth in production and sales [3][4] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 0.77 yuan per share for the year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 5.7% based on the closing price on March 28, 2025 [4]