Smarter Energy(SH:600869) Huaxin Securities·2025-03-31 15:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a cable leader to a comprehensive service provider in smart energy and smart cities, with a focus on intelligent cable networks, smart batteries, and smart airport services [3][4] - Revenue has grown from 17.155 billion yuan in 2019 to 24.465 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.27%. However, net profit has fluctuated, with a forecasted net loss of 1.5 to 3 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a wait for performance inflection points [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Transition to Smart Energy and Smart City Services - The company aims to become a global leader in smart energy and smart city services, having established a dual-wing business model focusing on intelligent cable networks and smart batteries [8][11] 2. Intelligent Cable Networks - The company is the largest cable manufacturer in China, with a market share of approximately 48% in the wind power sector and 60% in nuclear power cables. Future growth is expected from stabilized copper prices and the production of submarine cables [4][31][44] - Revenue from intelligent cable networks increased from 17.211 billion yuan in 2020 to 22.598 billion yuan in 2023, although net profit has been affected by fluctuating copper prices [49][50] 3. Smart Batteries - The smart battery segment has faced continuous losses, with a forecasted net loss of 5.05 billion yuan in Q3 2024. However, the company has secured significant orders, indicating potential for recovery [64][88][92] - The company has established a full industry chain layout from cell to system, with a current battery capacity of 7 GWh and plans for expansion [78][83] 4. Smart Airport Services - The smart airport business is expected to grow steadily, benefiting from increasing demand for civil aviation and supportive government policies for low-altitude economy development [98][106] - The subsidiary, Beijing Jinghang An, holds top qualifications in airport engineering and has a strong market presence in navigation lighting [107] 5. Emerging Business Opportunities - The company is leveraging its technological expertise in traditional businesses to enter new markets such as robotics cables and AI-related products, enhancing its valuation [3][4] 6. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to -218 million, 666 million, and 1.03 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.1, 0.3, and 0.46 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of -50, 16, and 11 times [5][4]