CMES(601872) 浙商证券·2025-04-01 01:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company reported a net profit that exceeded expectations in Q4 2024, driven by significant contributions from VLCC and container shipping [2] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that the tanker freight market will remain strong, with a reduction in nominal capacity expected due to restrictions on the "shadow fleet" and the inefficiency of aging vessels [3] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed dividend of 1.56 CNY per 10 shares, representing a total payout of 43.3% of net profit [3][4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 257.99 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 275.20 billion CNY in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 6.67% [5] - The net profit is expected to rise from 5.107 billion CNY in 2024 to 6.685 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 30.89% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.63 CNY in 2024 to 0.82 CNY in 2025, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 10.17 to 7.77 [5] Business Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 92.06 billion CNY from oil transportation, despite a decline of 4.8%, while net profit from this segment was 26.35 billion CNY, down 14.5% [9] - The dry bulk segment saw an increase in revenue to 79.40 billion CNY, up 11.7%, with net profit rising by 72% to 15.48 billion CNY [9] - Container shipping revenue was 54.34 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.9%, but net profit increased by 50.5% to 13.14 billion CNY [9] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - The company plans significant capital expenditures of 117 billion CNY in 2025 and 142 billion CNY in 2026 [3] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals for the oil tanker market are expected to remain favorable, with VLCC likely to regain its leading position in the coming years [4]