Guangzhou Restaurant(SH:603043) Huaxin Securities·2025-04-01 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth and brand momentum, with 2024 revenue reaching 5.124 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 10% to 494 million yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights the impact of product structure changes on gross margin, with a decrease of 7 percentage points to 26.03% in Q4 2024, while the dividend payout ratio increased to 55% [5]. - The mooncake segment generated 1.636 billion yuan in revenue, a 2% decline, but maintained stable pricing, indicating strong brand momentum [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a "big year" for mooncakes in 2025, alongside continued growth in the restaurant business, which saw a 15% increase in revenue to 1.455 billion yuan in 2024 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 51.24 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.94 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% decrease [4]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 10.21 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.4%, and net profit decreased by 22% to 460 million yuan [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.00 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 14, and 13 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][10]. - The forecasted revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are 9.4%, 9.1%, and 7.3% respectively, while net profit is expected to grow by 15% in 2025 [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its first-mover advantage in Guangdong to strengthen its market share in mooncakes and frozen products, with plans to expand into other provinces [7]. - The restaurant segment is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory through new store openings and increased market penetration [6][7].