STL(SZ:002648) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-01 03:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance is in line with expectations, with a projected net profit of 1.45-1.65 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.8%-61.4% [7] - The report highlights that the increase in natural gas prices in the U.S. has led to a rise in ethane prices, which has narrowed the C2 price spread [7] - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacities in 2025, including 40,000 tons of EAA and 160,000 tons of high molecular latex, which will enhance revenue growth [7] - The report projects significant profit growth for the C3 segment due to improved market conditions and new capacity contributions [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 41.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 85.740 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 4.789 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.495 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 25.2% [6] - The report anticipates a steady improvement in gross margin, with projections of 19.8% in 2023 and 22.8% in 2027 [6]