Lier Chemical (002258) 光大证券·2025-04-01 04:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was under pressure due to a significant decline in the price of glyphosate, resulting in a year-on-year revenue decrease of 6.87% to 7.311 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 64.34% to 215 million yuan [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is steadily advancing its capacity construction and optimizing production processes, which is expected to enhance competitiveness [3]. - The report projects an increase in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of 460 million yuan for 2025, 506 million yuan for 2026, and 668 million yuan for 2027, reflecting a significant upward revision in profit forecasts [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, down 6.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, down 64.34% year-on-year. The fourth quarter showed improvement with revenue of 2.123 billion yuan, up 15.10% year-on-year, and net profit of 83 million yuan, up 89.94% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue from pesticide raw materials was 4.101 billion yuan, down 14.45%, while pesticide formulations generated 1.500 billion yuan, down 9.42%. However, pesticide intermediates saw a revenue increase of 42.49% to 779 million yuan [2]. Capacity and Production - As of the end of 2024, the company had a raw material capacity of 86,320 tons per year with a utilization rate of 94.40%, and a formulation capacity of 81,200 tons per year with a utilization rate of 85.95% [2]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity for refined glyphosate and optimizing production processes to reduce costs and improve efficiency [3]. Market Outlook - The average market price of glyphosate in China was 54,300 yuan per ton in 2024, a decrease of 34.2% year-on-year, and further declined to 45,500 yuan per ton by March 28, 2025 [2]. - The report indicates that the decline in glyphosate prices has slowed, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3].