Semir(SZ:002563) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-04-01 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 14.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase [1]. - The children's clothing segment is projected to grow by 10% in revenue, while the adult clothing segment shows stable performance [3]. - The company is enhancing its product functionality and fabric research, focusing on consumer needs to drive sales and improve efficiency [3]. - E-commerce revenue is expected to increase by 7.1% to 6.67 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 2.4 percentage points [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a gross margin of 43.8%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The net profit margin is projected to decrease by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 940 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 83% and a dividend yield of 5% [1]. - The end-of-year inventory is expected to increase by 27% to 3.48 billion yuan, primarily due to an increase in winter merchandise [5]. Business Segment Performance - The children's clothing business is expected to generate 10% revenue growth, reaching 10.27 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 47.3% [3]. - The leisure clothing segment is projected to see a modest revenue increase of 0.4% to 4.19 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 35.5% [3]. - The company is optimizing its store image and product quality, with over 500 "New Semir" stores expected by the end of 2024 [3]. Channel Development - The company has successfully opened nearly 400 new stores in 2024, with over 1,400 new openings planned [4]. - Direct sales and franchise revenue are expected to grow by 12.6% and 5.1%, respectively, with gross margins of 66.1% and 36.2% [4]. - The company is enhancing its online and offline channel integration, leading to improved e-commerce performance [4].