盐湖股份（000792）：2024年年报点评：价格下跌拖累业绩，积极融入“三步走战略”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to falling lithium and potassium prices, with revenue down 29.9% year-on-year to 15.13 billion yuan and net profit down 41.1% to 4.66 billion yuan [1][12]. - The company is actively integrating into the "Three-Step Strategy" of China Salt Lake, aiming to expand its production capacity significantly by 2030 [4][41]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.9% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.66 billion yuan, down 41.1% [1][12]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 4.68 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 19.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.8% [1][15]. Operational Analysis - Lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 40,000 tons, with actual production and sales of 40,000 and 41,600 tons respectively in 2024. The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan per ton, down 56.3% year-on-year [2][30]. - Potassium chloride production was targeted at 5 million tons, with actual production and sales of 4.96 million and 4.67 million tons respectively, reflecting a year-on-year sales decline of 16.6% [3][33]. Strategic Insights - The company is focused on cost advantages and capacity expansion, with plans to produce 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025 and ongoing construction of a 40,000-ton lithium salt project [4][42]. - The company holds the leading position in potassium chloride production in China, which is crucial for national food security, as domestic potassium fertilizer production only accounts for 10% of global capacity [4][44]. Investment Recommendations - The lithium industry is expected to maintain an oversupply situation, with lithium prices stabilizing at a low range. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.20 billion, 6.38 billion, and 7.08 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [5][49].