洪都航空（600316）：内需提升，出口爆发

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by both domestic demand and international exports, particularly in military trade and advanced training aircraft [2][3][4][5][6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Overview - The company reported a revenue of 5.25 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.9% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected to be 39.24 million yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.18 billion yuan, 11.23 billion yuan, and 13.91 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 186 million yuan, 281 million yuan, and 378 million yuan [9][11] Military Trade - The company achieved a substantial increase in overseas revenue, reaching 1.32 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 548% [3] - The L15 advanced trainer aircraft is highlighted as a cost-effective product with potential to replace light combat aircraft, indicating a broad export market [3] Domestic Demand - The company anticipates a doubling of daily related transaction sales in 2025, indicating a significant increase in demand for trainer aircraft and missiles [4] - Contracts worth 6.446 billion yuan have been signed but not yet fulfilled, expected to contribute to revenue in 2025 [4] Drone Development - The company is positioned to enter a phase of increased demand for drones, with a growing trend in military applications globally [5] Large Aircraft Projects - The C919 aircraft project is accelerating deliveries, with the company supporting increased production capacity from 50 to 75 units per year [6] Low-altitude Aircraft - The company has received necessary certifications for its initial training aircraft, which has entered the civil aviation market and secured multiple orders [8] Investment Recommendations - The company is recognized as the only platform in China for the assembly of aircraft and missiles, with a diversified product range that is expected to lead to a rebound in performance and rapid growth [9]