CMES(601872) 国信证券·2025-04-01 08:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][8][20] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was weak, with total revenue of 25.799 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.107 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% year-on-year. The profit breakdown by segment shows net profits of 2.635 billion yuan for oil tankers, 1.548 billion yuan for bulk carriers, 1.314 billion yuan for container ships, and 0.337 billion yuan for ro-ro ships, with significant variances across segments [1][12] - The oil transportation sector was the main drag on performance due to weak global economic conditions leading to OPEC+ production cuts and a shift towards lower-cost black market oil, which reduced demand for compliant oil transportation. Conversely, the bulk shipping sector benefited from increased imports of bulk goods in China and longer shipping distances, resulting in a 27.3% year-on-year increase in the average BDI [2][15] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.56 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.264 billion yuan, with a total dividend payout of 2.079 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 40.7%. Additionally, the company will repurchase approximately 5.562 million shares, further enhancing shareholder returns [3][16] Financial Summary - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 from 6.15 billion yuan and 6.58 billion yuan to 5.97 billion yuan and 6.54 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a 2027 profit forecast of 6.83 billion yuan. The corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 8.9, 8.1, and 7.8 times [5][17] - The financial indicators for 2024 show a net profit of 5.107 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 5.971 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 16.9%. Revenue is expected to rise to 28.973 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 12.3% increase [6][18]