SHENHUO COAL&POWER(SZ:000933) EBSCN·2025-04-01 08:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be negatively impacted by a decline in both volume and price in the coal sector, leading to a year-on-year decrease in net profit by 27.07% to 4.307 billion yuan [1]. - In contrast, the profit from electrolytic aluminum is anticipated to improve in 2025 due to a favorable supply-demand balance and a potential increase in aluminum prices [2][3]. - The report highlights that the average price of alumina in Henan has dropped significantly by 44.3% since the beginning of the year, which may benefit the company's profit margins in the future [2]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.307 billion yuan, down 27.07% [1]. - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 5.891 billion yuan and 6.309 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a recovery trend [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.62 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7 [4][14]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts a gross margin of 24.0% for 2025, up from 21.2% in 2024, reflecting improved profitability [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 22.3% in 2025, indicating strong financial performance [14]. - The company's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease to 1.6 by 2025, suggesting potential undervaluation [14][15].