GED(SZ:000539) Xinda Securities·2025-04-01 08:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining electricity prices, with a focus on waiting for improvements in profit per kilowatt hour [1] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 57.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 964 million yuan, a decrease of 1.07% [1][2] - The coal-fired power segment is significantly impacted by falling electricity prices, while renewable energy segments show growth potential [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 57.16 billion yuan, down 4.27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 964 million yuan, down 1.07% year-on-year [1][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 14.64 billion yuan, up 0.75% year-on-year but down 10.93% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 105 million yuan [1] Segment Analysis - The coal power segment reported a net profit of 278 million yuan, while the gas power segment reported 483 million yuan, and the renewable energy segment achieved a net profit of 171 million yuan [2] - The overall gross margin for electricity sales decreased by 1.14 percentage points year-on-year to 12.97% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue increasing its coal and gas power projects, with significant growth in gas power generation [3] - The average electricity price in Guangdong is projected to decline further in 2025, which may continue to pressure the company's performance [3][6] - The company is focusing on controlling costs, with a notable decrease in fuel costs expected to mitigate some of the pressure from falling electricity prices [4][6] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to increase to 58.19 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 878 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% [5][6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.17 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.90 times [5][6]