CMSK(001979) 光大证券·2025-04-01 09:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total sales revenue of 351 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.7% [2]. - The company's revenue for 2024 was 1789.5 billion yuan, a stable increase of 2.3% year-on-year, primarily supported by sufficient initial contract liabilities [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 40.4 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 36.1% year-on-year, influenced by declining gross margins and increased asset impairment losses [1][3]. Summary by Sections Sales and Land Acquisition - In 2024, the company added 2.25 million square meters of land reserves, with a total land cost of approximately 48.6 billion yuan, focusing 90% of investments in "core 10 cities" [2]. - The land acquisition to sales ratio was 22.2%, down 16.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in market demand [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 14.6% in 2024, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the real estate development segment's gross margin at 15.6%, down 1.5 percentage points [1][3]. - As of the end of 2024, the company maintained a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.4% and a net debt-to-equity ratio of 55.9%, indicating a stable financial position [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 42.1 billion yuan and 44.7 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 59.2 billion yuan and 68.6 billion yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.1 for 2025, 19.8 for 2026, and 16.1 for 2027, reflecting the company's strong financial health and land acquisition capabilities [3].