Shede Spirits (SH:600702) HUAXI Securities·2025-04-01 09:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.357 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 80.46% year-on-year [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to pressure on demand and channel management, leading to inventory reduction [3] - The company has established a joint venture with Yelang Ancient Liquor Industry, which achieved a revenue of 264 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.78% [4] - The company is transitioning to a more refined channel strategy and has implemented an equity incentive plan to support performance [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit, with high-end and ordinary liquor revenues decreasing by 27.66% and 23.42% respectively [3] - The sales volume for high-end and ordinary liquor fell by 12.09% and 41.69%, while the price per ton for high-end liquor dropped by 17.71% [3] - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets was 1.511 billion yuan and 3.277 billion yuan respectively, with a more significant decline in foreign sales [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to focus on major products, high-end positioning, national expansion, and internationalization in 2025 [6] - The equity incentive plan involves granting up to 203,660 shares at a price of 28.78 yuan per share, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a recovery in performance in 2025, with projected revenues of 6.061 billion yuan and net profits of 913 million yuan [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.75 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 times [9]