Hengrui Pharma(SH:600276) BOCOM International·2025-04-01 09:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][8][10] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve strong growth in 2024, driven by the continued expansion of innovative drug sales and licensing income from multiple business development (BD) deals [2][5] - The target price has been raised to RMB 51.00, reflecting a potential upside of 3.7% from the current price of RMB 49.20 [2][6] - The company maintains a robust pipeline with over 90 innovative products in clinical development and plans to announce clinical data at major academic conferences [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 32,039 million, an increase of 13.5% from the previous forecast of RMB 28,221 million [4][10] - Gross profit is expected to reach RMB 27,633 million in 2025, up 14.2% from the prior estimate [4][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 7,118 million for 2025, reflecting a 13.8% increase from the previous estimate of RMB 6,253 million [4][10] Sales and Growth Projections - The company anticipates a 34% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 107% increase in net profit for 2024, largely due to RMB 2.7 billion in licensing income [5][10] - Innovative drug sales are expected to grow by 31% to RMB 139 billion, contributing over 50% to total product sales [5][10] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 26% for innovative drug sales from 2024 to 2026 [5][10] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 44 times the 2025 earnings and a price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 2.8 [5][10] - The company’s valuation is considered reasonable for an innovation-driven prescription drug company, with limited upside potential in the near term [5][10]