Flat(SH:601865) CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2025-04-01 09:51Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to the continued low prices of photovoltaic glass, but prices are expected to stabilize and recover [6][4] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.683 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion yuan, down 63.52% year-on-year [4] - The company has a competitive advantage as an industry leader, with over 90% of its production lines utilizing large furnaces, which provide lower costs and higher efficiency [6][4] - The company is expected to improve its profitability in 2025 as photovoltaic glass prices are anticipated to recover [6][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 4.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 27.67%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.37% [6] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was -289 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 136.54% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 42.40% [6] Production Capacity - As of December 31, 2024, the company had a total production capacity of 19,400 tons per day for photovoltaic glass [6] - The company is positioned in the first tier of the photovoltaic glass industry, with a market share exceeding 50% when combined with its main competitor [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected operating revenue for 2025 is 19.687 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.38% [8] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.153 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.50% [8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 36.2, 22.9, and 17.7 respectively [8] Market Comparison - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 27.3 [8] - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the photovoltaic glass industry due to its scale, resource, and technological advantages [6][4]