NCI(601336) 国投证券·2025-04-01 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in 2024 with total revenue of 1325.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 262.29 billion yuan, up 201.1% year-on-year [1]. - New business value (NBV) reached 62.53 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 106.8% [2]. - The company has prudently adjusted the investment return assumptions for non-linked insurance funds to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in an embedded value of 2584 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 3.17% from the beginning of the year [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company reported original premium income of 1705.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Long-term insurance new single premiums were 388.11 billion yuan, down 5.1% year-on-year, while long-term insurance new single regular premiums increased by 15.6% to 272.20 billion yuan [2]. - The new business value rate improved significantly from 6.7% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2024, an increase of 7.9 percentage points [2]. - The personal life insurance business showed a 13-month continuation rate of 95.7%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a 25-month continuation rate of 86.2%, up 7.8 percentage points [2]. Agent and Channel Performance - The number of individual insurance agents decreased slightly to 136,000, down by 19,000 year-on-year, but the average monthly performance of agents improved by 41% year-on-year to 0.81 million yuan [3]. - The bancassurance channel generated premium income of 516.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with first-year premiums for long-term insurance reaching a historical high of 138.73 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [3]. Investment Performance - Total investment income surged by 251.6% year-on-year, with an overall investment return rate of 5.8%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a net investment return rate of 3.2%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The proportion of bond investments increased by 2.0 percentage points to 52.1%, while stock investments rose significantly by 70.2% to 1807.95 billion yuan, accounting for 18.8% of total investment assets, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 8.80 yuan, 11.47 yuan, and 11.72 yuan respectively, with a target price of 57.61 yuan based on a 0.65x P/EV for 2025 [4][6].