农业银行：业绩增速领跑大行，不良关注率双降-20250401

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Agricultural Bank's revenue and net profit growth rates are leading among state-owned banks, with 2024 revenue and net profit increasing by 2.26% and 4.72% year-on-year, respectively, marking an acceleration compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [4][9] - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.3% at the end of 2024, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter [8][9] - The bank is well-positioned to benefit from urban-rural integration and has a strong focus on county-level financial services, which is expected to drive growth [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Agricultural Bank's total assets, loans, and financial investments grew by 8.4%, 10.13%, and 23.5% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The bank's net interest income increased by 1.56% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in growth rate compared to the previous quarter [4] - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 26.3% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in financial investments [4] Loan Growth - Agricultural Bank's total loan balance reached 23.98 trillion yuan, with corporate, personal, and discount loans growing by 10.6%, 9.35%, and 15% year-on-year, respectively [5] - Personal loans outperformed the national average growth rate, with personal consumption loans and personal business loans growing by 28.3% and 35% year-on-year [5] Asset Quality - The bank's NPL ratio decreased to 1.3%, with a coverage ratio of 299.61%, indicating a stable risk absorption capacity [8] - The bank's focus on county-level loans has resulted in a lower NPL ratio of 1.21% for these loans, which is better than the overall average [8][9] Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to see revenue and profit growth accelerate in 2024, maintaining its leadership among state-owned banks [9] - Projections for 2025-2027 indicate a slight decline in revenue growth in 2025, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [9]