GED(SZ:000539) Xinda Securities·2025-04-01 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining electricity prices, with expectations for improvement in profitability per kilowatt hour [1][2] - The coal-fired power segment is significantly impacted by falling electricity prices, while renewable energy segments show growth potential [2][6] - The company plans to continue expanding its coal and gas power projects, with a focus on increasing electricity generation capacity [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 57.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 964 million yuan, down 1.07% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a single-quarter operating revenue of 14.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.75%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.93% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 105 million yuan [1] Segment Performance Summary - The coal power segment reported a net profit of 278 million yuan, while the gas power segment achieved a net profit of 483 million yuan [2] - The renewable energy segment generated a net profit of 171 million yuan, and investment income contributed 810 million yuan [2] - The overall gross margin for electricity sales decreased by 1.14 percentage points year-on-year, with coal and gas power margins declining by 3.69 and 1.50 percentage points, respectively [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a continued decline in electricity prices in Guangdong, which may pressure performance in 2025 [3][6] - The company has ongoing projects with a total capacity of 800,000 kilowatts for coal power and 194,200 kilowatts for gas power, which are anticipated to be operational between 2024 and 2026 [3] - The renewable energy segment is projected to grow significantly, with plans for an additional 1.4 million kilowatts of installed capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 58.19 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 878 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% [5] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.17 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 26.90 times [5][6] - The net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 is 1.15 billion yuan and 1.20 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22 yuan and 0.23 yuan [5][6]