Fuling Zhacai(SZ:002507) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-01 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term profit pressure in 2024, but stable growth is anticipated in 2025 [1][5] - The revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.39 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit is expected to be 800 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [4][9] - The company has made adjustments to its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 890 million, 960 million, and 1.04 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11.6%, 7.8%, and 7.6% [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for Q4 2024 are expected to be 420 million yuan and 130 million yuan respectively, showing declines of 14.8% and 23.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 50.99%, a slight increase of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [6] Market Strategy - The company has introduced a new 60g product priced at 2 yuan to enhance its product range, which has shown positive results [5] - In Q3 2024, the company implemented sales policy support and a "targeted explosion" project to boost terminal sales [5] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims for an 8% revenue growth and a gross margin of 51.78%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company anticipates a slight decrease in procurement prices for green vegetables, which may stabilize costs [7] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 for 2025, 16.1 for 2026, and 15.0 for 2027 [4][9] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.77 yuan, increasing to 0.90 yuan by 2027 [9][11]