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中国石化(600028):油价波动与能源转型致使公司盈利承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure due to oil price fluctuations and energy transition, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [3][4]. - Despite challenges in the oil and gas sector, the company continues to invest heavily in exploration and production, ensuring a steady increase in reserves and output [5][6]. - The company is set to distribute dividends, highlighting its investment value and commitment to shareholder returns [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 30,745.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 503.13 billion yuan, down 16.79% year-on-year [3][4]. - The average price for gasoline and diesel per ton decreased by 1.4% and 5.5%, respectively, while sales volumes also declined [4]. - Natural gas sales volume increased by 10% to 40,805 million cubic meters, with an average price rise of 3.4% to 2,230 yuan per thousand cubic meters [4]. Capital Expenditure and Production - The company allocated 82.3 billion yuan for capital expenditure in 2024, focusing on significant breakthroughs in exploration projects [5][6]. - Oil and gas equivalent production reached 515.35 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a final cash dividend of 0.14 yuan per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of 0.29 yuan and an expected dividend yield of 4.28% [7][8]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 577.99 billion yuan, 638.08 billion yuan, and 635.30 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.0, 10.9, and 10.9 [8][10].