GAC GROUP(601238) 光大证券·2025-04-01 13:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for both A and H shares of the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a significant transformation with a focus on both joint ventures and independent brands, aiming to enhance its market position and operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company's 2024 performance is under pressure, with total revenue expected to decline by 17.1% year-on-year to CNY 106.8 billion, and net profit expected to drop by 81.4% to CNY 0.82 billion [1][3]. - The report highlights a gradual improvement in sales and investment returns in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating a potential recovery trajectory [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates a total revenue of CNY 106.8 billion, a decrease of 17.1% from the previous year, and a net profit of CNY 0.82 billion, down 81.4% [1][3]. - The gross margin is projected to decline by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 shows a revenue increase of 4.8% year-on-year and a net profit turnaround to CNY 0.7 billion [1]. Sales and Production - The company’s total sales volume is expected to decrease by 24.2% in 2024, totaling 1.917 million vehicles [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a sales volume of 583,000 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.9% [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a comprehensive reform of its independent brand strategy, with plans to launch 20 new or updated models by 2025 [2]. - The establishment of a joint venture with Huawei aims to accelerate the development of high-end electric vehicles [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects a gradual recovery in profitability, with net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 at CNY 0.75 billion and CNY 0.88 billion, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to improve its cost structure through unified procurement strategies, potentially reducing costs by 10% by 2025 [2].