罗莱生活（002293）深度报告：公司整体经营有望企稳回升

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The overall operations of the company are expected to stabilize and recover, driven by favorable consumption policies and inventory reduction [9]. - The company is a leading player in the domestic mid-to-high-end home textile market, maintaining the top market share for 19 consecutive years [9]. - The company has a strong focus on e-commerce and direct sales, which are growing faster than franchise channels [9]. - The home textile industry is expected to grow steadily, with a potential recovery in the U.S. housing market in 2025-2026 [9]. - The company has set ambitious growth targets for revenue and net profit for the next three years, reflecting long-term confidence [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Mid-to-High-End Home Textile Leader - The company has been the market leader in home textiles for 19 years, with a focus on high-end European-style bedding products [13]. - The company has expanded its product range to include high-end home furnishings and has established a presence in the U.S. market through its subsidiary, LEXINGTON [9][13]. 2. E-commerce/Direct Sales Growth - From 2019 to 2023, the CAGR for e-commerce, direct sales, and franchise channels was +9.4%, +2.2%, and -1.0%, respectively [21]. - The gross margin for the e-commerce channel increased significantly, indicating effective operational strategies [21]. 3. Steady Growth in Mature Home Textile Industry - The home textile industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.1% from 2023 to 2028, with increasing consumer demand for health and comfort features [31]. - The U.S. subsidiary's performance is closely tied to the housing market, which is expected to recover in the coming years [32]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the home textile industry will benefit from increasing market concentration [36]. - The company has consistently invested in R&D, focusing on product innovation and quality [36]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 402 million, 452 million, and 491 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [50]. - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 7.05 and 8.13 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 13-15X for 2025 [50].