盐湖股份：年报点评：钾锂价格回落导致业绩下滑，未来行景气有望回暖-20250402

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by falling prices of potassium and lithium, but there are expectations for a recovery in the future [3][4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue of 15.134 billion yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.07% year-on-year [3][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to show a positive turnaround, with expected net profit growth of 20.97% to 28.47% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 15.134 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.07% year-on-year [3][6]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride fell by 13.76% to 2506.57 yuan/ton, while sales volume decreased by 16.56% to 4.6728 million tons [3]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate dropped by 56.26% to 74,000 yuan/ton, despite a sales volume increase of 10.51% to 41,600 tons [3]. Market Outlook - The potassium chloride market is expected to gradually recover due to stable demand and supply constraints from major producers [4][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a potential increase in potassium fertilizer prices as the spring farming season approaches [5]. Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The company has a potassium chloride production capacity of 5 million tons per year, leading the domestic market with approximately 35% market share [3]. - The lithium carbonate production capacity is currently 40,000 tons per year, with plans to expand to 43,000 tons in 2025, leveraging cost advantages from its salt lake resources [6]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.04 yuan and 1.18 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.93 and 14.07 based on the closing price of 16.56 yuan [6].