CRRC(601766) 海通证券·2025-04-02 00:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][7][12] Core Views - The report highlights that the railway equipment market remains robust, with the leading company in urban rail equipment poised for growth [2][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 246.46 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, and a net profit of 12.39 billion yuan, up 5.77% year-on-year [7][8] - The company signed new orders worth approximately 322.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an international business component of about 47.2 billion yuan [7][8] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 234.26 billion yuan - 2024: 246.46 billion yuan - 2025E: 269.51 billion yuan - 2026E: 288.82 billion yuan - 2027E: 303.33 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 5.1% for 2023, 5.2% for 2024, 9.4% for 2025, 7.2% for 2026, and 5.0% for 2027 [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 11.71 billion yuan - 2024: 12.39 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.46 billion yuan - 2026E: 14.65 billion yuan - 2027E: 15.70 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 0.5% for 2023, 5.8% for 2024, 8.6% for 2025, 8.8% for 2026, and 7.2% for 2027 [6][8] Business Structure and Performance - The company's core business segments and their performance in 2024 are as follows: - Railway: Revenue of 110.46 billion yuan, up 12.50% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.72% [7][8] - Urban Rail: Revenue of 45.44 billion yuan, down 9.72% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.95% [7][8] - New Industries: Revenue of 86.38 billion yuan, up 7.13% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 17.52% [7][8] - Modern Services: Revenue of 4.18 billion yuan, down 18.22% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 28.42% [7][8] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin for 2024 is 21.38%, with a net profit margin of 6.36% [7][8] - The operating cash flow for 2024 is reported at 27.13 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 84.27% year-on-year [7][8] Valuation and Market Position - The report estimates a reasonable market value range for the company between 215.3 billion yuan and 255.7 billion yuan, with a target price of 7.50 to 8.91 yuan per share based on a projected EPS of 0.47 yuan for 2025 [12][8] - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of urban rail equipment and is expected to benefit from growth in the wind power and other emerging industries [12][8]