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固生堂:AI赋能中医服务龙头-20250402

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 30.1% year-on-year to 3.02 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit growth of 31.4% to 400 million RMB, exceeding profit expectations by 3.1% [1][2]. - The company is expanding its offline store network, adding 21 new stores in 2024, significantly up from 9 in 2023, and now operates 78 stores across 20 cities in China and Singapore [1][7]. - The management expects a revenue growth of 25% year-on-year in 2025, with adjusted profit growth of no less than 20% [1][7]. Financial Performance - For FY23A, the company achieved a sales revenue of 2,323 million RMB, with a projected increase to 3,022 million RMB in FY24A [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY23A was 305 million RMB, expected to rise to 400 million RMB in FY24A [2]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24A is projected at 1.64 RMB, with a market average estimate of 1.93 RMB for FY25E [2]. Valuation - The target price is set at 52.38 HKD, representing a potential upside of 57.5% from the current price of 33.25 HKD [3][7]. - The report adjusts the DCF-based target price, reflecting a WACC of 10.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [10][7]. Growth Strategy - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance service efficiency and patient care, with plans to launch AI-powered services to improve the productivity of scarce medical resources [7][8]. - The management aims to increase overseas revenue to 150-200 million RMB by 2025, focusing on expanding in first-tier cities in China and entering new markets [7][8]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned 420 million RMB to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and buybacks, amounting to 137% of its net profit for the year [7][8]. - The management anticipates maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 30% in the future [7].