CRSC(SH:688009) Haitong Securities·2025-04-02 02:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][7][11] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in rail transit control systems and highlights the acceleration of business expansion both domestically and internationally [7][11] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of railway investments and the stabilization of urban rail markets, focusing on optimizing its business structure and enhancing overseas operations [7][8] Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 32.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.98%, with a net profit of 3.495 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% [7][8] - The company anticipates revenues of 32.412 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 3.607 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.22% [8][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 29.8% in 2025 and 29.7% in 2026 [6][8] Business Segments - Railway segment revenue is projected to be 19.457 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight growth of 3% [8][10] - Urban rail segment revenue is expected to decline slightly, with projections of 8.015 billion yuan in 2025 [8][10] - Overseas business is anticipated to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 3.662 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase [8][10] - The engineering contracting segment is expected to see a substantial decline, with revenues projected at 0.672 billion yuan in 2025 [8][10] Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 6.13 to 7.15 yuan per share, based on a PE ratio of 18-21 times for 2025 [11][12] - The estimated market capitalization is projected to be between 649 billion yuan and 758 billion yuan [11][12]