吉比特（603444）：业绩筑底，关注新品表现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 11.7%, primarily due to decreases in revenue from "Wandao Mobile" and "Yinian Xiaoyao" by 11.4% and 42.5% respectively, while the "Wandao" PC game saw a revenue increase of 3.9% [1][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 940 million, down 16.0% year-on-year, mainly due to losses from newly launched domestic games and overseas operations [1][9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 720 million (before tax) in 2024, which accounts for 75.9% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][9] Revenue and Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 is 87.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margins for self-operated, joint-operated, and licensed operations at 90.4%, 84.7%, and 97.8% respectively [2][11] - The overall expense ratio for 2024 increased by 4.2 percentage points to 51.9%, primarily due to a significant decline in revenue [2][11] - The company reported a single-quarter revenue of 880 million in Q4, down 14.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 8.1% to 290 million, attributed to reduced issuance costs and foreign exchange gains [1][9] Product Performance - The "Wandao" PC game showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 3.93%, while the mobile version experienced a decline of 11.39% [3][16] - The company launched several new games in 2024, including "Fei Ba Long Qi Shi (Overseas Version)" and "Monster Never Cry (Overseas Version)", which contributed to an 83.9% increase in overseas revenue to 500 million [3][16] - Upcoming products include the self-developed MMO mobile game "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo (M88)" and the agency-operated Three Kingdoms-themed SLG "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye", expected to launch in 2025 [3][16] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.01 billion, 1.14 billion, and 1.23 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 14, 15.83, and 17.04 [4][17] - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 16x, 14x, and 13x respectively, indicating a strong long-term growth potential [4][17] - The company maintains a strong research and development capability and excellent long-term operational ability, which is expected to drive a new product cycle [4][17]