Workflow
上汽集团:1季度终端销量好于批发量,对外合作及改革持续推进中-20250402

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a 2025 PE average valuation of 20 times [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's terminal sales in the first quarter exceeded wholesale sales by approximately 135,000 vehicles, indicating a healthy channel improvement. The overall wholesale sales in March reached 385,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a month-on-month increase of 30.8% [10]. - The company is making progress in its reforms and partnerships, particularly with Huawei, which is expected to enhance its brand influence and sales performance. The domestic sales of the company's self-owned brands saw a significant year-on-year improvement, with a 58.7% increase in the first quarter [10]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project EPS of 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively, with a predicted revenue of 611.67 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.8% [4][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 720.99 billion CNY, with a slight increase to 726.20 billion CNY in 2023. However, a significant drop to 611.67 billion CNY is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery to 674.25 billion CNY in 2025 and 721.88 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased from 16.12 billion CNY in 2022 to 14.11 billion CNY in 2023, with a forecasted drop to 1.77 billion CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 12.38 billion CNY in 2025 and 13.39 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 11.0% by 2026, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 1.9% in 2026 [4][11].