YTCO(SH:600066) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-02 05:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus is "Outperform the Market" [5][22]. Core Views - Yutong Bus achieved record high revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue reaching 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%, and net profit of 4.12 billion yuan, up 126.5% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from both domestic recovery and international expansion, particularly in the new energy bus sector, with a projected revenue of 42.1 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 13% increase [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Yutong Bus reported revenue of 13.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.4%, and a net profit of 1.68 billion yuan, up 119.7% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.7 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with an annual total of 7.2 billion yuan, marking a historical high [2][11]. Market Outlook - The domestic bus market is expected to recover due to policies promoting the replacement of old buses, while the international market shows significant growth potential, especially in new energy buses [3][21]. - Yutong Bus is enhancing its competitive edge by transitioning from a "manufacturing and sales" model to a "manufacturing and service solutions" model, particularly in overseas markets [3][22]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.10 yuan in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 4.66 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][24]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 14.1 in 2024 to 12.4 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][24].