Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 2.836 billion, 733 million, and 725 million yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 60%, 55%, and 56% respectively [2][6] - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to achieve total operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 851 million, 202 million, and 201 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 56%, 28%, and 41% respectively [2][6] - The company is expected to continue to grow due to the increase in both new and existing customers, as well as the ramp-up of production capacity at its Vietnam base, which is anticipated to drive profit recovery [2][6] Revenue Performance - The company achieved overseas revenue of 2.690 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59%, with overseas revenue accounting for 95% of total revenue [11] - The sales volume of metal products reached 60.73 million units, up 59% year-on-year, with an average price of 45.5 yuan per unit, reflecting a 1% increase [11] - The largest customer, PMI, generated revenue of 2.472 billion yuan, a 64% increase, and its share of total sales rose from 85% to 87% [11] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 37.7% in 2024, primarily due to the ramp-up of new production capacity [11] - The net profit margin attributable to the parent company and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring gains and losses both decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 25.8% and 25.6% respectively [11] - In Q4 2024, the gross profit margin dropped by 10.5 percentage points to 33%, mainly due to the ramp-up phase of the Vietnam base and increased fixed costs from new domestic facilities [11] Tax and Tariff Considerations - The company’s main product, thermal cups, has a high markup to end customers, and the global sales trend of customers, along with the company's global production layout, is expected to mitigate the impact of tariffs [11] - The company is actively advancing the production setup of its Vietnam subsidiary to enhance product origin diversification and strengthen supply chain collaboration with overseas customers [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the growth of both new and existing customers, alongside improved capacity utilization leading to profit recovery [11] - Projections for net profit attributable to the parent company are 900 million and 1.1 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 12x and 10x respectively [11]
嘉益股份（301004）：2024年点评：收入业绩延续高增，看好公司持续成长