ICBC(601398) 华创证券·2025-04-02 06:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) with a target price of 7.56 CNY / 5.99 HKD [2][8]. Core Views - ICBC demonstrated strong resilience in net interest margin and stable asset quality, with a slight decrease in non-performing loan ratio to 1.34% and a provision coverage ratio of 214.9% [2][8]. - The bank's total operating income for 2024 was 821.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 365.9 billion CNY, up 0.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights improvements in loan structure, particularly in retail loans, which saw a growth rate of 3.5% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total operating income (million CNY): 2024: 821,803; 2025E: 828,128; 2026E: 844,278; 2027E: 883,234 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million CNY): 2024: 365,863; 2025E: 368,388; 2026E: 379,648; 2027E: 392,481 [3]. - Earnings per share (CNY): 2024: 1.01; 2025E: 1.02; 2026E: 1.05; 2027E: 1.09 [3]. - Price-to-earnings ratio: 2024: 6.72; 2025E: 6.67; 2026E: 6.47; 2027E: 6.25 [3]. Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - Non-performing loan ratio: 2024: 1.34%; 2025E: 1.33%; 2026E: 1.31%; 2027E: 1.31% [11]. - Provision coverage ratio: 2024: 215%; 2025E: 212%; 2026E: 208%; 2027E: 205% [11]. - The report notes a decrease in asset impairment losses by 16% year-on-year, contributing positively to profits [8]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.8%, 2.0%, and 4.6% respectively, and net profit growth forecasts to 0.7%, 3.1%, and 3.4% respectively [8]. - The bank's valuation is considered undervalued at 0.63x 2025 PB, with a target PB of 0.7x for 2025E [8].