Chengtou Holding(SH:600649) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-02 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is backed by Shanghai Urban Investment Group, focusing on urban renewal with abundant land reserves, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The company reported a significant increase in revenue but faced pressure on profits due to declining gross margins [5][6] - The company plans to maintain a cumulative cash dividend ratio of no less than 35% of net profit from 2024 to 2026, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 41.28% for 2024 [6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 94.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 268.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.58% [6] - The gross margin for the real estate business decreased by 19.7 percentage points to 14.97%, with the gross margin in the Shanghai area at 13.95% [6] - The company’s operating cash flow was 26.56 billion yuan, up 26.75% year-on-year [6] Sales and Land Acquisition - The company realized a signed sales amount of 177.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 116%, with a sales area of 119,000 square meters and an average sales price of 149,000 yuan per square meter [7] - The company acquired new land in Huangpu and Minhang districts, with a total acquisition price nearing 10 billion yuan, and has approximately 820,000 square meters of land available for development, 90% of which is located in Shanghai [7] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - As of the end of 2024, the company had a total leased area of 509,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 64.1%, with rental income of 335 million yuan, up 13.7% [8] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents reached 8.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, with interest-bearing liabilities at 41.97 billion yuan and financing costs reduced to 4.04% [8] Financial Summary and Projections - The company’s projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 6.1 billion yuan, 8.4 billion yuan, and 9.9 billion yuan respectively [5][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.24 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.39 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.0, 13.2, and 11.1 [9]