VANKE(SZ:000002) Ping An Securities·2025-04-02 08:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Vanke A (000002.SZ) with a current stock price of 7.11 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 343.18 billion yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year, and a net loss of 49.48 billion yuan, down 506.8% year-on-year. The loss was slightly higher than the earnings forecast, and the company plans not to distribute dividends or issue bonus shares [5][8]. - The report highlights that the company's profitability is under pressure due to several factors, including a significant decrease in the settlement scale and gross profit margin of development business, which fell to 9.5%, leading to a comprehensive gross margin decline of 5.1 percentage points to 10.2% [8]. - The company is actively working on restructuring and risk mitigation strategies, focusing on core business operations and achieving stable sales and cash recovery [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Vanke A's revenue is projected to be 343.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 26.3%. The net profit is expected to be -49.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 506.8% decrease compared to the previous year [5][8]. - The gross margin is expected to remain at 10.2% for 2025, with a slight improvement to 11.3% by 2027 [7]. Operational Strategy - The company aims to deliver over 180,000 high-quality homes in 2024, achieving sales of 246.02 billion yuan, maintaining a sales recovery rate above 100% [8]. - Vanke A has completed 54 major asset transactions, totaling 25.9 billion yuan, and has optimized its capacity to recover over 10 billion yuan in cash [9]. Support from Shareholders - Since the end of 2023, major shareholders, including Shenzhen State-owned Assets and Shenzhen Metro Group, have provided substantial support to the company, assisting in the disposal of illiquid assets and facilitating financing [9]. - In early 2025, the major shareholder provided a total of 7 billion yuan in loans to meet the company's funding needs [9]. Future Earnings Projections - The report has adjusted the EPS forecast for 2025 to -0.80 yuan and for 2026 to -0.33 yuan, with a new projection for 2027 at 0.10 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of -8.9 for 2025 and -21.7 for 2026 [9][10].