航天电器（002025）：存货高增保短期交付，景气向上成长加速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue performance in 2024 due to fluctuations in defense demand and insufficient orders, with a projected revenue of 5.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.08%. The net profit is expected to be 347 million yuan, down 53.75% year-on-year. However, the gross margin is stable and slightly increasing, while the net profit margin is expected to decline due to rising operating expenses [2][12]. - The significant increase in inventory is aimed at ensuring short-term delivery, while the establishment of production capacity solidifies long-term growth certainty [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 5.025 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.08% year-on-year. The total profit was 408 million yuan, down 56.43% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 347 million yuan, a decline of 53.75% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue was 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.31%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 65 million yuan, down 141.72% year-on-year [6][12]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to increase by 0.35 percentage points to 38.34%, while the overall operating expense ratio is rising, leading to a net profit margin decrease of 5.94 percentage points to 8.04% [12]. Inventory and Demand - The company's inventory balance at the end of 2024 increased significantly to 1.851 billion yuan, reflecting proactive production and material reserves to ensure product delivery. The contract liabilities also increased to 137 million yuan, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 894 million yuan, 1.153 billion yuan, and 1.402 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 158%, 29%, and 22%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 29, 22, and 18 times [12].