Xml [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 重视商业航天、大飞机、商发景气成长空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-01 | | [分析师： Table_Author] 孟祥杰 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | | | SFC CE No. BRF275 | | | 010-59136693 | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | | SFC CE No. BRT139 | | | 010-59133689 | | | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 邱净博 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | | 010-59136685 | | | qiujingbo@gf ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing prosperity in the commercial aerospace and military sectors, highlighting opportunities in overseas markets and the importance of technological advancements in the industry [2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing upward momentum, driven by SpaceX's advancements in reusable rocket technology, which could reduce space access costs by 100 times [13] - The military aviation sector is expected to benefit from increased demand for large aircraft and military trade, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [14] - The report identifies a focus on supply chain reforms and the integration of AI technologies as key trends shaping the future of the defense and aerospace industries [15] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies that align with the "S-curve" evolution, focusing on supply chain reforms and automation, including firms like航发动力 (Aero Engine Corporation) and 中航沈飞 (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation) [15] - Companies positioned for expansion in military trade and civil aviation, such as 国睿科技 (Guorui Technology) and 中国动力 (China Power), are highlighted for their growth potential [15] - Emerging industries like commercial aerospace, AI, and quantum computing are also recommended, with firms like 睿创微纳 (Ruichuang Micro-Nano) and 菲利华 (Feilihua) noted for their innovative capabilities [15] Group 3: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - 航发动力 (Aero Engine Corporation) is projected to have a 2025E EPS of 0.22 CNY, with a PE ratio of 216.82 for 2025 [6] - 中航高科 (AVIC High-tech) is expected to achieve a 2025E EPS of 0.90 CNY, with a PE ratio of 29.16 for 2025 [6] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating growth in EPS and improvements in PE ratios across the sector, reflecting a positive outlook for the defense and aerospace industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant sector rotation, particularly in the large aircraft sector, with major stocks like Changhe Aircraft Industries and others hitting the daily limit up, indicating a collective surge in the industry chain [1] Group 1: Market Movement - The large aircraft sector saw a collective rally with 13 leading stocks reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the sector [1] - The surge in the large aircraft sector is attributed to recent disclosures from the National Social Security Fund, which revealed new investments in seven leading companies within the large aircraft industry chain [3][4] Group 2: Key Companies and Investments - Chaojie Co., a core supplier of fasteners for the C919 aircraft, was highlighted as a new investment by the social security fund, becoming its sixth-largest shareholder with 670,000 shares [3] - Xice Testing, the only private entity with full-chain aerospace testing qualifications, saw the social security fund increase its holdings to 3.5 million shares, making it the fourth-largest shareholder [3] - Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) Technology, a key player in the C919 engine supply chain, attracted new investments from major international banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS [3] - Hangya Technology, a leader in the domestic aviation precision forging blade sector, received new investments from the social security fund, becoming the eighth and ninth largest shareholders [4] - Hongdu Aviation, a core enterprise under AVIC, is the sole supplier of the C919's front and rear fuselage, with the social security fund acquiring 5 million shares [4] Group 3: Industry Developments - The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) completed the compliance flight test for the C919, providing a positive evaluation that exceeded market expectations and facilitating its entry into the EU market [6] - The CJ-1000A domestic engine has completed extensive testing, resolving previous capacity constraints and is expected to receive certification by the second quarter of 2026 [6] - Predictions indicate that C919's annual production capacity could rapidly increase to 50-70 aircraft by 2027, with plans to raise production from 30 to 60 aircraft in 2026 [7] Group 4: Market Potential - The existing orders for C919 exceed 1,000 aircraft, representing a market scale of 650 billion yuan, with the potential to drive over 2 trillion yuan in value across the supply chain [7] - The Yangtze River Delta region has become a hub for the large aircraft industry, housing over one-third of the national aircraft supply chain suppliers [7] - By 2043, China's civil aviation fleet is projected to reach 10,061 aircraft, making it the largest single aviation market globally, with an expected reception of 9,323 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace industry [1] Core Insights - The aerospace sector is transitioning from being viewed as a "cost center" driven by national will to a "growth engine" driven by commercial demand, with significant investments and strategic planning from both the US and China [6][9] - The global aerospace economy is projected to reach $613 billion in 2024, with commercial aerospace contributing 78%, and is expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2032 [6][9] - The value chain of commercial aerospace is divided into five core levels: "space, ground, terminal, rocket, and application," each presenting unique market opportunities and technical challenges from 2026 to 2030 [10][29] Summary by Sections 1. Space: Satellite Manufacturing - The satellite manufacturing market in China is expected to grow from approximately 7.1 billion yuan in 2025 to about 39.4 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a shift from sporadic research models to continuous, batch engineering deliveries [16][18] 2. Ground: Ground Systems - The ground systems market is projected to increase from around 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 to approximately 39.1 billion yuan by 2030, evolving from a supporting role to a core infrastructure essential for stable satellite constellation operations [21][22] 3. Terminal: Key Variable for Commercial Aerospace - The terminal market is anticipated to grow from 500 million yuan in 2025 to about 141.9 billion yuan by 2030, driven by multiple vertical industries and potential consumer scenarios [23][24] 4. Rocket: Core Constraint - The cost of rocket launches is a critical constraint, with reusable technology expected to reduce costs by 80%-90% compared to traditional expendable rockets. The market for rocket launch services is projected to grow from approximately 10.7 billion yuan in 2025 to about 34.3 billion yuan by 2030 [25][26] 5. Application: Final Value Realization - The application market is expected to expand from 200 million yuan in 2025 to 525 billion yuan by 2030, with the revenue share from applications projected to rise from single digits to over 67% by around 2030 [27][28] 6. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in commercial aerospace can be categorized into three main tracks: 1. Launch and manufacturing segments, which are expected to benefit directly from increased orders and visibility 2. Core components and systems, characterized by high technical barriers and critical for long-term competitiveness 3. Downstream applications and operational services, which, while currently limited in scale, hold the greatest long-term potential for value realization [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The launch cycle of the Long March 12 rocket has been shortened, indicating a potential acceleration in China's commercial space launch rhythm. The report anticipates that by 2026, China's commercial space sector will experience rapid growth, becoming a core investment direction in the military industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Long March 12 rocket, developed by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, has demonstrated strong performance with a near-Earth orbit capacity of at least 12 tons and a 700 km sun-synchronous orbit capacity of at least 6 tons. The rocket's launch cycle has been optimized, reducing the time by 4 days, showcasing high efficiency in testing and launch operations [4]. Future Outlook - By 2025, significant breakthroughs in manned spaceflight, deep space exploration, and commercial space sectors are expected, with a projected total of 92 launches, setting a historical record. The report highlights that 2026 will bring further surprises and advancements in China's space endeavors, including the construction of space stations and lunar exploration [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks for investment, including Aerospace Electronics, Shaanxi Huada, Zhimin Da, Guobo Electronics, Guangwei Composite, and AVIC High-Tech. Related stocks mentioned include Chaojie Co., Zhenlei Technology, China Satellite, Aerospace Electric, Zhongtian Rocket, and Srey New Materials [4].

Group 1 - The company, Aerospace Electric, announced that it will hold its first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2026 on February 6 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Aerospace Electric announced the approval of several proposals during the first temporary meeting of the eighth board of directors for 2026, including expected daily related transactions for 2026 and adjustments to the repurchase price of the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan [2] Group 1 - The company approved the proposal regarding the expected daily related transactions for 2026 [2] - The company adjusted the repurchase price of the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan [2] - The company proposed to repurchase and cancel part of the restricted stock from the 2022 incentive plan [2]

Group 1 - Aerospace Electric announced the convening of its first temporary board meeting for 2026 on January 15, 2026, via telecommunication voting [1] - The meeting reviewed the proposal regarding the expected daily related transactions for the year 2026 [1] Group 2 - A new "affordable" version of the Tesla Model 3 may enter the Chinese market, priced under 200,000 yuan, with a range of 480 kilometers [1] - Significant adjustments are occurring in the U.S. market regarding autonomous driving technology [1]

证券代码：002025 证券简称：航天电器 公告编号：2026-04 贵州航天电器股份有限公司 关于回购注销 2022 年限制性股票激励计划部分限制性股票 及调整回购价格的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、本次限制性股票回购数量：63,968 股 2、本次调整后的回购价格：限制性股票回购价格由人民币 45.62 元/股调整 为人民币 45.39 元/股。 贵州航天电器股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2026 年 1 月 15 日召开 第八届董事会 2026 年第一次临时会议，审议通过了《关于调整 2022 年限制性股 票激励计划回购价格的议案》《关于回购注销 2022 年限制性股票激励计划部分限 制性股票的议案》，根据公司《2022 年限制性股票激励计划（草案修订稿）》（以 下简称 "《激励计划》"）有关规定，拟对 8 名激励对象已授予但尚未解除限售的 限制性股票共 63,968 股进行回购注销。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、激励计划已履行的决策程序和信息披露情况 （一）2022 年 11 月 4 日，公司召开第七届董事会 ...

北京市中伦律师事务所 关于贵州航天电器股份有限公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划调整回购价格及 回购注销部分限制性股票相关事项的 法律意见书 二〇二六年一月 1 北京市中伦律师事务所 关于贵州航天电器股份有限公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划调整回购价格及 回购注销部分限制性股票相关事项的 法律意见书 致：贵州航天电器股份有限公司 对本法律意见书，本所律师作出如下声明： 1、本所律师已得到公司如下保证：即公司业已向本所律师提供了本所律师 认为制作法律意见书所必需的原始书面材料、副本材料或口头证言等，其所提供 的文件资料的副本或复印件与正本或原件一致，且该等文件资料的签字与印章都 是真实的，该等文件的签署人业经合法授权并有效签署该文件：保证其所提供信 息和文件的真实性、准确性和完整性，保证不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并承担法律责任。 2、本所律师依据本法律意见书出具之日以前已经发生或者存在的事实和《中 华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）、《中华人民共和国证券法》（以 下简称"《证券法》"）等国家现行法律、法规、规范性文件和中国证券监督管理 委员会的有关规定发表法律意见。 根据贵州航 ...