By-health(SZ:300146) Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-02 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to face revenue and profit declines in 2024, with projected revenues of 6.84 billion yuan and net profit of 653 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 27.30% and 62.62% respectively [1] - The company anticipates stable budget targets for 2025, with a focus on optimizing expenses and enhancing product innovation in both online and offline channels [3][2] - The company plans to increase support for S-level distributors and introduce more products at affordable price points in the offline market [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company's main brands are projected to generate revenues of 3.74 billion yuan for汤臣倍健, 808 million yuan for健力多, 314 million yuan for life-space, and 872 million yuan for境外 LSG, all showing significant year-on-year declines [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 is expected to be 60.26%, with a net profit margin of -19.53%, indicating a decrease in profitability [2] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q4 2024 is projected to decline by 51.11% to 345 million yuan [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts a revenue growth of 3% in 2025, reaching 7.1 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 34% to 880 million yuan [3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23X, 20X, and 17X respectively [3] Market and Channel Insights - Online and offline revenues for 2024 are expected to be 3.36 billion yuan and 3.42 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 25.35% and 29.79% [2] - The company aims to enhance its international market operations and introduce new products in the infant and child segment to drive growth [2]